How Tariffs on Mexican Imports Are Quietly Raising Your Grocery Bill

The Hidden Cost of Tariffs: What’s Really Behind Your Grocery Bill

As a former mayor of a U.S.-Mexico border city and former chief of staff at U.S. Customs and Border Protection, I've seen how economic decisions ripple across borders—and your dinner plate. Tariffs, often seen as mere policy tools, can hit closer to home than you think—especially when they target our most essential trade partner: Mexico.

Intermestic Partners, the international business advisory firm I founded in 2011, works with top companies to navigate these complex shifts in cross-border trade. Let me walk you through what’s really at stake when tariffs are imposed.

Why Mexican Imports Matter

Mexico supplies 70% of foreign-grown vegetables and 40% of imported fruits to the U.S.
Nearly 100% of avocados sold in the U.S. come from Mexico.
In 2018, $16.8 billion worth of fruits and vegetables were imported from Mexico.

These numbers aren’t just stats—they’re the building blocks of your weekly grocery run.

How Tariffs Inflate Prices

Let’s break it down:

A 5% tariff on avocados raises supermarket prices by about 8 cents per avocado.
If tariffs rise to 25%, consumers could pay 33 cents more per avocado.
These costs aren’t absorbed by exporters—they’re passed straight to you.

Even a 17.5% tariff on tomatoes led to an 8% drop in imports in months—proof that trade is extremely tariff-sensitive.

Your Supermarket, Your Wallet

Grocery stores pass increased costs directly to consumers. As a result:

Prices rise.
Selection shrinks.
Consumers are forced to pay more or go without.

The impact doesn’t stop at the register. These price hikes lower disposable income and reduce overall consumer spending, a cornerstone of the U.S. economy.

Economic Domino Effect

Here’s what happens post-tariff:

Food production costs rise.
Jobs in food and beverage manufacturing (13.3% of U.S. manufacturing employment) are at risk.
Consumer demand falls.
Businesses face lower sales and potential layoffs.

Bottom line: Tariffs ripple far beyond the farm.

The Way Forward

Solutions require political will and international coordination:

Temporary subsidies can ease pain but distort the market.
Negotiated trade agreements offer a long-term fix.
Free and fair trade remains essential for economic stability.

As CEO of Intermestic Partners, I’ve seen firsthand how strategic partnerships can create win-win outcomes. We’ve supported clients navigating these challenges through thoughtful cross-border strategies.

If your business or organization is feeling the strain of tariffs or trade disruption, let’s talk. Intermestic Partners is here to help you chart a smarter course.